Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.190305 0.213922 0.239452 0.269122 0.302683 0.339500 0.382993
2025-11-16 0.147334 0.177164 0.211743 0.254870 0.307332 0.369223 0.447994
2025-11-23 0.117055 0.149428 0.189364 0.242427 0.311352 0.398216 0.516574
2025-11-30 0.099414 0.134116 0.179463 0.243378 0.331669 0.450094 0.622264
2025-12-07 0.081452 0.115521 0.162433 0.232219 0.334228 0.479164 0.702974
2025-12-14 0.068890 0.102345 0.150708 0.226375 0.343016 0.518004 0.804169
2025-12-21 0.058965 0.091443 0.140557 0.221101 0.351596 0.557651 0.913419
2025-12-28 0.053007 0.085618 0.137096 0.225395 0.375455 0.624392 1.077437
2026-01-04 0.046680 0.078269 0.130140 0.222886 0.387648 0.673844 1.221044
2026-01-11 0.041987 0.072937 0.125696 0.223840 0.405746 0.736007 1.398288
2026-01-18 0.038424 0.069031 0.123102 0.227568 0.429249 0.811363 1.613866
2026-01-25 0.033597 0.062211 0.114406 0.218757 0.427790 0.839488 1.741400
2026-02-01 0.029025 0.055375 0.104996 0.207634 0.420959 0.857762 1.856220
2026-02-08 0.025850 0.050792 0.099260 0.202952 0.426512 0.902367 2.037429
2026-02-15 0.023022 0.046522 0.093575 0.197541 0.429718 0.942719 2.217869
2026-02-22 0.021464 0.044624 0.092427 0.201578 0.454259 1.034364 2.538849
2026-03-01 0.019122 0.040777 0.086707 0.194723 0.453014 1.066889 2.721534
2026-03-08 0.017367 0.037969 0.082849 0.191515 0.459820 1.119785 2.968304
2026-03-15 0.015815 0.035410 0.079209 0.188271 0.466015 1.172312 3.225874
2026-03-22 0.014972 0.034351 0.078819 0.192778 0.492382 1.280891 3.663958
2026-03-29 0.013822 0.032431 0.076174 0.191285 0.502959 1.349773 4.002923
2026-04-05 0.012952 0.031071 0.074695 0.192564 0.521219 1.443094 4.437902
2026-04-12 0.012284 0.030122 0.074102 0.196093 0.546350 1.560634 4.977563